The BIgger Picture
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The Bigger Picture: Monthly White Papers
White Paper | AI: where we are now
This latest presentation is on some thoughts around AI and why it may pay to be sceptical even though firms are likely to use it as an excuse to drive through significant cost savings.
White Paper | China- the state of play and what it means for advertising
This latest presentation looks at the situation in China and the possible implications for global advertising spend.
White Paper | State of the UK Nation
This presentation focuses on the UK post-the General Election and gives an outline of the political situation as well as the economy and the advertising outlook.
White Paper | Consumer Package Goods
This presentation looks at the CPG industry, some of the medium to longer term trends that are likely to influence the space as well as the general market view on the CG names.
White Paper | European Broadcasters
The latest presentation is on the European Broadcasters, how they are perceived by the market, the mistakes they are making and how they can improve the situation.
White Paper | Key Sector Trends
This month mainly looks at the sector trends for six key verticals within the UK market. It focuses on less obvious trends occurring mainly over the medium to longer-term.
There is also a short UK macro overlook looking at where the economy currently stands and the position of the consumer
White Paper | The implications of 2024 revisited
An update of what I published last summer on the implications of what is happening in 2024 on the electoral front, and what it means for the Media and Tech sectors. Some of the points will be obvious but most will not. Most are based around advertising and Tech but not all.
Given the world faces an ‘interesting’ 2024, what happens globally will leave its imprint on the space
White Paper | How to make the case for marketing
An in-depth piece looking at what Boards think of marketing, the accounting standards, what those in marketing can do to persuade companies to either invest more or maintain their marketing spend, and some of the suggestions I would use to put this into practice.
White Paper | The UK Outlook
Some thoughts on where we are in the UK, where we go next and then what it likely means for the advertising environment.
The Implications of 2024
Politically, 2024 is going to be a big year.
Here are some thoughts on why the Media and Tech sectors need to be thinking about this now and next year, and what will be the likely implications for the Media and Tech sectors. Some of the latter will be obvious but some certainly will not.
White Paper | Steady as it goes: The outlook for the upcoming Q1 results season
The Q1 results season is just about to start so I share my thoughts of what are likely to be the key points on both the macro / advertiser side and also for the Media and Tech sectors.
In summary, I don’t think there will be much change in the messaging from companies although Tech is likely to be boosted not so much by good results but by a changing view on the interest rate environment and a re-emphasis on efficiency.
White Paper | The Tightening Noose: A deep dive into the Q3 results for the established social media networks
The Q3 results season has been mixed across the board, in terms of both results and the messages given about the wider macroeconomic landscape. Certainly, the results from several sectors, such as Airlines, Luxury Goods, Financial Services and most (if not all) of the Consumer Goods space, suggest an environment where demand is holding up and price increases are tolerated more than expected, although there are plenty of other examples to suggest the pain is increasing. Yet when it comes to the social media space, the message seems to be one of gloom, at least for the short term. There may be reasons for thinking that gloom may be more prolonged.
This deep dive into the social media networks raises a number of points, some of which may be obvious, others not.
White Paper | A game of two halves: Where we stand in the SVOD wars
Back in late February, I wrote in my then quarterly piece “The streaming endgame: what History teaches us about the likely finale of the battle for streaming dominance”, that the paid Subscription Video on Demand streaming model was in long-term danger and probably unsustainable longer-term.
The timing of the paper was certainly fortuitous. Two months later, at its Q1 results, Netflix reported a subscriber loss for the first loss and gave guidance on Q2 subscriber losses of 2 million that shocked the market.
But where do we stand now? I thought it was a good time to revisit the SVOD landscape given all the events of the past seven months.
White Paper | The Devil’s Advocate: Six arguments as to why much of the digital advertising spending may be wasted
Much has been made of the efficiency of digital advertising and how it leads to better outcomes.
To be upfront, I am a sceptic and I thought for this monthly piece that it would be good to present a case for the prosecution as to its value. I have focused specifically on online-centric platforms, as opposed to the offshoots of traditional media e.g. AVOD for Broadcasters, the latter of which I believe has a central role to play.
The aim of this piece is to pull readers away from the intricacies and to think about the bigger picture.
White Paper | Republicans buy sneakers revisited: why advertisers should be aware of the growing political risks
With the collapse of the Netflix share price following its shocking Q1 results, and the news of Elon Musk’s accepted bid for Twitter, the other major story in the US Media and Tech space over the past few weeks has been Disney’s increasingly bitter dispute with Florida’s Republican Governor. What does this mean to advertisers and agencies, and why do they still need to be aware of the growing anti-sentiment amongst conservative voters?
To consume or not to consume? What is likely to happen to – and with – the consumer market over the short to medium-term
The world seems to be suffering from the Chinese curse of “may you live in interesting times”. The geopolitical situation remains febrile and the economic front concerning. Explored in this piece is the trends that are impacting (and likely to impact) the consumer; (2) where the consumer is now and (3) some thoughts and conclusions as to what is likely to happen next and what it means for the sector.
The muddying waters – key thoughts on the upcoming Q4 results season
This upcoming week will perhaps be the single most important week for company results in the reporting season, at least for US companies – around half of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and c. a quarter of the S&P 500 are expected to report this week.
As usual, I will share some thoughts as to what I think will be the main messages from the reporting cycle, mainly for the Media and Tech businesses but some wider macro-economic themes as well. Also, as usual, I will try and avoid the obvious points and highlight perhaps some of the areas that maybe get less attention.
The seven thoughts-a-swimming – what the end of the year tells us about the sector
Christmas has taken on a weird feel this year. The news of the Omicrom variant has dampened hopes of a relatively quick return to normality and, while business would normally have wound down by now, it seems as frenetic as ever with no slowdown. There are several themes emerging at the end of the year, which are likely to feed into 2022 and beyond. Some may not be obvious, some you may disagree with but I would keep an eye on the following trends over the next 12 months.